The software is based on mathematical models able of simulating the time evolution of the different stages of a pest population starting from environmental data collected from weather stations located in an area of interest and information regarding the development stage of the host plant. The models are of two types: phenological, which provides information on the stages population as a function of time and demographic which also allows to know the abundance of each population stage. The software, which can be used even by users without too much mathematical and computer knowledge, is easily adaptable to any invasive insect pest. An important application concerns field treatments with pesticides. Using weather forecast it is possible to determine in advance when the population reaches an alarm level at which it is necessary to treat.
Predictive models for pests in agriculture have been used since the beginning of the last century. In the regional integrated production programs of the Emilia Romagna region, the distributed delay model is used to describe the insects’ phenology. The phenological models we use are more flexible than the distributed delay model as they allow for more information on the biology of the species to be taken into account. Furthermore, where possible, it is interesting to develop a demographic model that can also provide information on the abundance of species. The demographic model is currently little used in integrated pest management programs because it requires greater knowledge of the biology of the species, but we believe that this model is more efficient in determining an optimal strategy for phytosanitary treatments aimed at reducing the use of pesticides.